The final pre-election forecast gives Donald Trump a 53% chance of beating Kamala Harris in the electoral college.


Kamala Harris currently has a 47% chance of being elected America’s next president. She’s projected to win between 185 and 400 electoral college votes.


Donald Trump currently has a 53% chance of re-taking the white house. He’s projected to win between 138 and 353 electoral college votes.

Projected electoral college votes

The model is updated daily, blending state and national polls with non-polling predictors, like economic growth and presidential approval, to generate a range of potential outcomes in the electoral college. As we get closer to election day, the uncertainty around the estimate will decrease.

Presidential probabilities

Each day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races. Each candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.

There is a less than 1% chance of a tie in the electoral college.

Chance of winning each state

State-level results determine the makeup of the electoral college. Most states heavily favor a particular party, leaving a few competitive battlegrounds that will be decisive in determining the next president. Hover/click to see more information about a particular state.

Forecasted election-day voteshare

The model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse. It then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.

Conditional outcomes

From the thousands of simulations, the model can see how the electoral college outcome changes when each candidate wins in a specific state. If Harris wins in a red-leaning state, for example, it’s likelier that she also wins in competitive states.

Sources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com

View the source code
Explore the output

National Forecast
How this works


Competitive states
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona


All states
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine CD-1
Maine CD-2
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska CD-1
Nebraska CD-2
Nebraska CD-3
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming