A scratchpad for statistics, politics, and other odd lots
Part 4: Adjustments for Aggregators
Part 3: Binary Surprises
Part 2: A Free Lunch
Writing this down to keep future me sane
An introduction to and description of a March Madness forecasting system
Part 1: The Abstract
What went well, what could be improved, and where to go from here
A power ranking for the title of most pedantic nerd on Dropout’s Um, Actually
The methodology behind the model
If you want to see a Democrat in the white house next year, Biden is your best bet
A survivor’s guide to estimating customer lifetime from discrete censored churn data
How to think about (and avoid thinking about) the presidential election in 500 days
A new metric for measuring regional partisanship
Reparameterizing multinomial models for better computational efficiency
Using gaussian process models for hospital goal setting
Estimating population results from non-representative survey samples using multilevel regression and post-stratification
Mixed scales lead to mixed results
Ordered categorical models for estimating Net Promoter Score: a hierarchical Bayesian implementation
A causal look at how Musk’s twitter ownership has affected Tesla stock
Multilevel Models for Patient Satisfaction
A look under the hood of the 2022 Midterm Model
A grammar of (nested) data manipulation
Modeling patient satisfaction data with empirical Bayesian methods
Improving a plot, one step at a time
Organizational resistance to uncertainty
How republicans who voted to impeach or acquit Donald Trump differ in their votes on democracy
Generate bootstrap prediction intervals from a tidymodel workflow!
Why you should put a roof on your house before hiring an interior decorator
Using bootstrap resamples to generate confidence intervals from non-linear models
Building a Presidential Approval Model
Building a Generic Ballot Poll Aggregator
Feature Engineering with the Diamonds Dataset
